Preventing the Unthinkable: India & Pakistan's Nuclear Standoff

The World Affairs Council of Atlanta is hosting a series of virtual dialogues focusing on the United States’ ongoing foreign policy re-directs under the Trump Administration. Amb. (ret.) Charles Shapiro, President Emeritus of the Council and former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela, will lead each dialogue with world-class experts in their fields of study and practice.  

In May 2025, India and Pakistan narrowly avoided a full-scale war after a deadly terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir triggered a rapid military escalation. The crisis, which included airstrikes, missile exchanges, drone warfare, and cyber operations, was defused through a U.S.-brokered ceasefire on May 10. Despite the de-escalation, cross-border violations persist, and tensions remain high. Both nations signaled their nuclear capabilities during the standoff—Pakistan convened its National Command Authority, while India reaffirmed its stance against nuclear blackmail.

Former Georgia U.S. Senator Sam Nunn has long warned that the most alarming nuclear threat lies in the volatile relationship between India and Pakistan. These two large, multiethnic, developing nations have a history of deep-seated animosity rooted in the 1947 partition of British India. Since then, they have fought four wars and engaged in numerous skirmishes, with Kashmir remaining the most contentious flashpoint.

Both countries possess nuclear weapons and delivery systems, but their doctrines differ: India maintains a "No First Use" policy, while Pakistan follows a "full-spectrum deterrence" approach. Experts caution that this doctrinal divergence, combined with modernization of arsenals and high-alert postures, leaves little room for error. There is also growing concern among nuclear security analysts about the risk of terrorist groups gaining access to nuclear materials or weapons in the region.

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